8/4/12

How Monti could win the game

The great Monti move? A quick comment on recent developments.

It seems clear that Monti is taking the leadership in designing the rescue of the Euro and to some extend of Europe. In the last few days he visited all the relevant european capital cities and most probably is closing the gap to reach an agreement.

 Monti has played the card we mentioned few weeks ago. An anti europe consensus is growing in Italy. If Europe continues to be subject to the German egotistic attitude, the Italian government resulting from next election could end up with a strong anti europan bias. The same in Spain.

The governor of ECB mr Draghi was the first to understand the situation, and the risk it brings to the future of Europe. I think this is now widely understood.

So what is the deal? Monti is offering the guarantee that any future Italian government will continue the rigour policies and will not be tempted to go back to relaxation after being saved.

How? Both Spain (first) and Italy ( say mid August) will ask for the shield against the spread to be used and as a consequence enter into binding agreements with EU Commision and ECB. These agreements will be binding also any new goverment. This will reassure the German goverment and possibly public opinion.

Well done Mario and Mario... checkmate!!!

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